realestate

2026 Commercial Real Estate: NAR Report Forecast

From staff reports: NAR NXT conference covered MLS policies, agent ethics, spotlighting commercial real estate via Counselors of Real Estate.

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300 Douglas’s mixed‑use development has revitalized Preston Center, proving resilient even as the commercial real estate market faces headwinds.

    At the recent NAR NXT conference, the Counselors of Real Estate—NAR’s global advisory arm—released its 2026 “Top 10 Issues” report. Key points:

    **1. Fiscal & Monetary Policy**

    Despite a $37 trillion debt and geopolitical turbulence, the economy remains buoyant. Jobs, consumer spending, and equity markets stay steady, yet commercial real estate shows uneven performance, especially in for‑sale housing and aging office stock. *Takeaway:* Real estate will continue to drive growth and stability unless unexpected policy shifts occur.

    **2. Portfolio Risk Gains Prominence**

    Risk management now drives investment decisions. Firms use predictive analytics, climate models, drone surveys, and smart‑building data to assess financing exposure and environmental threats. *Takeaway:* Risk analysis shapes buy‑sell‑hold strategies, refinancing, and overall portfolio prioritization; expertise in risk and resiliency is becoming a distinct specialty.

    **3. Capital Scarcity**

    Deal volume slowdown makes fundraising tougher, and real estate competes with booming energy and digital infrastructure sectors. Investors demand clear liquidity, long‑term stability, and a compelling case. *Takeaway:* Raising capital will stay competitive; projects must articulate why they’re smart investments.

    **4. Technology’s Role in CRE**

    AI fuels demand for data centers and transforms underwriting, operations, and cybersecurity. Fragmented building systems hinder full AI adoption. *Takeaway:* Owners must consolidate data from disparate systems to stay ahead; those who don’t will lag in the AI‑driven market.

    **5. Housing Affordability Crisis**

    Nationwide shortages and rising costs pressure renters, first‑time buyers, and seniors. Rhode Island, needing 40,000 units, has built fewer than 3,000 in 20 years. *Takeaway:* No single fix exists; incremental, collaborative solutions—land‑use reforms, zoning tweaks, entitlement changes—are essential. Everyone must act to improve access.

    For the complete list of 10 issues, visit NAR’s website.

NAR forecasts 2026 commercial real estate market trends.