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rlington’s 2026 real‑estate outlook shows a modest uptick in sales and prices, even as broader economic headwinds loom. The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (NVAR) and the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University released a new forecast on Dec. 29 that places the city’s single‑family segment at a 3.8 % price rise—one of the highest among the six jurisdictions examined. Alexandria leads with 4.2 %, followed by Loudoun (3.3 %) and Fairfax (1.9 %). Prince William and Stafford counties are projected to decline by 0.2 % and 4.6 %, respectively.
“Regional economic shifts put us at a pivot point, making forecasting tricky,” said Terry Clower of the Center for Regional Analysis. NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin noted that the market is moving toward a more balanced state between buyers and sellers, a shift he highlighted in a 45‑minute presentation accompanying the report. The post‑COVID era’s tight inventory had pushed prices up and frustrated buyers; the coming year should bring a healthier market dynamic, McLaughlin added.
2025 NVAR president Casey Menish echoed this sentiment, stating that a balanced market allows buyers to choose the right home rather than rush into the first offer. In Arlington, however, inventory remains tight, and Clower cautions that the market will stay relatively strong because few homes are entering the market.
Key 2026 projections for Arlington:
- **Single‑family homes**: median sales price +3.8 %, sales +1.1 %, inventory +27.8 %
- **Townhouses**: median price +1.9 %, sales +1.4 %, inventory +20.8 %
- **Condos**: median price +2.1 %, sales +1.3 %, inventory +30.9 %
Clower attributes the slower condo price growth to higher association fees, which have risen with inflation over the past three years. Although inventory gains appear large, they are relative to the very low 2025 levels.
Despite ongoing economic uncertainty and federal workforce volatility, 2026 may see personal income growth catching up to housing costs, offering a chance for the region to close the gap that has widened over recent years, said NVAR president Rob Carney of TTR Sotheby’s International Realty. Post‑COVID return‑to‑work trends are tightening markets outside the immediate metro area while bolstering closer‑in locations. “People who might have considered farther‑out suburbs are now focusing inside the Beltway,” Clower observed, a shift that should sustain price increases.
Interest rates are expected to hover around 6 % next year—slightly below the long‑term average but still higher than the early‑pandemic lows. Carney noted that while rates won’t return to the levels of a few years ago, the improvement helps with affordability.
NVAR, a trade association of roughly 13,000 members covering residential and commercial real estate, will release 2025 year‑end sales and price data for the Northern Virginia and D.C. region on Jan. 11.
On the national stage, the National Association of Realtors projects a 14 % rise in home sales and a 4 % increase in prices for 2026. Chief economist Lawrence Yun attributes the rebound to easing mortgage rates, continued job growth, and greater market stability after several challenging years. Yun emphasized that next year should deliver a measurable sales uptick and that home prices nationwide are not at risk of falling.
