F
or years the real‑estate cycle was as predictable as the seasons: spring saw buyers with pre‑approvals, summer kept the pace with families moving before school, and fall slowed until winter. But the summer of 2024 disrupted those expectations. While some predicted a clear shift to a buyer’s market, the reality proved more complex.
“Many of us have been saying that the market is much more balanced,” said Tracey Esling, 2025 president of the Bay East Association of Realtors. “It’s not the extreme buyer’s market some imagined, nor the frantic seller’s market of recent years.” This equilibrium is reshaping when buyers and sellers find the best opportunities.
Data now points to mid‑late October as a prime window for buyers. Traditionally the start of the slow season, October in the San Francisco Bay Area actually sees about 30 % more active listings than the beginning of the year, along with price reductions and less competition. “The spring and summer rush still exists, but savvy buyers recognize chances in what used to be the off‑season,” Esling added. Sellers who stay on the market through fall are often more motivated, giving buyers room to negotiate without the pressure of multiple offers.
So, should the calendar still dictate real‑estate decisions? A well‑priced, well‑presented home can attract serious buyers any time of year. Patience pays off: those who shop when competition thins—late fall, winter, or early spring—often find sellers more willing to negotiate on price and terms. Esling notes that seasonality in the Tri‑Valley is not as pronounced as many think. “The market doesn’t have to favor one side,” she says. “It’s made for anyone ready to buy or sell.”
Reduced pressure allows for thoughtful decision‑making instead of rushed choices that characterize competitive spring markets. “We’re still seeing some seasonal patterns, but they’re not nearly as strong as people believe,” Esling said. “Life circumstances don’t always align with the traditional spring selling season. Focusing solely on the calendar can cause buyers and sellers to miss opportunities right in front of them.”
The real question is not whether real estate is seasonal, but whether seasonality should drive your choices. In a balanced market where neither side holds overwhelming leverage, the “right time” depends more on personal readiness, financial health, and long‑term goals than on the date on the calendar. “If you’ve been waiting for the perfect moment, the answer might be simpler than you think,” Esling concluded. “The best time is when you’re prepared, properly advised, and ready to make a move that aligns with your life plans, regardless of the season.”
Devin Davis, public affairs specialist for the Bay East Association of Realtors, highlighted that the association’s insights help buyers and sellers navigate these shifting patterns.
