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s the frequency and ferocity of natural disasters intensify, a seismic shift is underway in the US real estate market. Americans are increasingly fleeing areas prone to climate-related catastrophes, seeking refuge in regions deemed more resilient. However, this great migration won't unfold uniformly; instead, it will be marked by pockets of growth and decline.

    According to First Street's report, Property Prices in Peril, neighborhoods across the country can be categorized into distinct buckets. "Climate abandonment" areas are those where climate risks and insurance premiums have become so prohibitive that populations are dwindling. In contrast, "risky growth" areas – think major metros like Texas – will see a 76% surge in population over the next three decades, despite rising perils.

    The report highlights Tampa, Florida, as an example of a city facing significant losses, with home prices potentially plummeting by up to 25%. Conversely, climate resilient areas like Dane County, Wisconsin, and Franklin County, Ohio, are expected to attract more residents. First Street estimates that the value of real estate will decline by over $1 trillion by 2055.

    What's striking is that risk is often hyperlocal, with one city or metro area containing neighborhoods that fall into multiple categories. Americans are already adapting, sorting themselves away from riskier parts and toward safer ones within their own cities. As Jeremy Porter, First Street's head of climate implications research, notes, "We're not seeing large-scale migrations; instead, people are seeking relatively less risky areas within their metro regions."

    This nuanced understanding of climate migration underscores the importance of local context in assessing risk. Cities and metro areas can be thought of as having high or low levels of climate risk, with individual neighborhoods within them exhibiting varying degrees of vulnerability. By acknowledging this complexity, we can better prepare for the challenges ahead.

    As awareness about climate exposure grows, so too does the demand for data-driven insights to inform decision-making. With climate change accelerating at an unprecedented pace, it's essential that we prioritize access to reliable information and adapt our approaches to mitigate its impacts on our communities and economy.