F
irst published in CNBC’s Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick, this article spotlights new real‑estate opportunities for investors from individuals to large institutions. The commercial‑real‑estate (CRE) market’s rebound has been uneven, echoing the volatility of interest‑rate policy. After a strong post‑pandemic surge, 2025 has slowed. Moody’s data, exclusive to CNBC, shows October was the first month since the Fed’s rate‑hike recovery began in early 2024 where year‑over‑year transaction volume fell.
Deal volume turned positive earlier this year and was nearing pre‑COVID levels by year‑end. Kevin Fagan, Moody’s head of CRE capital‑market research, said the dip reflects a stalemate between buyers and sellers, prolonged by high rates and 2025’s policy uncertainty. Despite the decline, October still saw $24.4 billion in sales—about 70 % of October 2019—and overall dollar volume remains higher than last year, though growth momentum has decelerated since 2023.
Industrial and multifamily properties dominated the top deals, while hotels were the only sector to grow, up 6 % after a weak third quarter. A headline transaction was the sale of the New York Edition hotel at 5 Madison Ave for $231.2 million. The buyer, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, transferred the property to Kam Sang Company. Fagan noted the high price, the involvement of a Middle‑Eastern sovereign wealth fund, and the building’s heritage as the former MetLife Clock Tower, the world’s tallest from 1910‑1913. Both the Clock Tower and the Woolworth Building—also once the tallest—were converted to hotel and residential uses around 2013, underscoring that office space is now largely obsolete but hotel and apartment assets retain strong value.
The multifamily segment experienced its sharpest decline in October, down 27 % from 2024, even though the preceding four months saw volumes above pre‑COVID levels and most units traded at a premium to prior sales. Office space continued its uneven recovery, with many properties sold at discounts or repurposed. The largest October sale was Sotheby’s headquarters, sold to Weill Cornell, likely to be converted to medical office space. New York Life purchased a distressed Manhattan office from BGO for roughly half its 2015 sale price, illustrating institutional appetite for discounted office assets and reinforcing the long‑term value floor in strong markets.
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