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ccording to the U.S. Census Bureau’s September 24 release, new‑single‑family home sales surged 20.5 % from July and 15.4 % from a year earlier, driven by contract signings that exclude cancellations. The spike translates to an annualized pace of 800,000 units—well above the 650,000 consensus and the fastest rate since early 2022 before the rate‑hike wave. Median price climbed to $413,500, a 1.9 % year‑over‑year increase, diverging from the recent trend of slowing price growth. In August, roughly 20 % of new homes sold for under $300,000—the highest in almost a year—while nearly 33 % sold above $500,000.
Mortgage rates fell last month as the market awaited the Fed’s potential rate cut, and builders offered more concessions to close deals. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, noted that the shift toward smaller, more affordable homes could sustain demand, especially as buyers look to downsize.
Despite the headline numbers, many economists remain cautious. “The Census Bureau’s monthly figures are notoriously volatile and often revised,” said Jing Fu, NAHB’s senior director of forecasting. Nancy Vanden Houten of Oxford Economics echoed this view, labeling the August data a likely blip that “overstates any improvement in housing activity.” She added that a genuine rebound would require falling mortgage rates and a stronger labor market.
Builder sentiment remains weak, with the NAHB confidence index falling to 53 in August from 58 in July. Housing starts and permits also lag, with starts down 2.5 % and permits down 1.8 % YoY, underscoring the caution in the market. Overall housing inventory has also slowed as sellers pull listings, further tightening supply.
The sales uptick also tightened new‑home inventory. End‑August inventory stood at 7.4 months, down from 9 months in July and 8.2 months a year earlier. This contraction, coupled with sellers pulling listings amid weak demand, is expected to influence overall market inventory in the coming weeks.
