T
he US population growth is slowing down, which means fewer new households will be formed, reducing the demand for new homes. However, immigration remains a wild card that could impact this trend. Key points include:

    Household growth in the US has been declining, and Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies predicts it will continue to slow over the next two decades.

    By 2035, population growth is expected to be negative if not accounting for immigration. This slowdown could lead to a surplus of homes, forcing the construction industry to adapt.

    The housing shortage in the US has driven up home prices and contributed to the affordability crisis. However, if household growth slows, supply will catch up, leading to a significant shift for the homebuilding industry.

    Demographic changes are driving this trend. The number of children under 5 decreased by almost 9% between 2010 and 2020, while seniors over 62 increased by more than 36%. This aging population is expected to slow down growth in the native population, making immigration a crucial factor in future population growth.

    The construction industry will remain busy building new homes for the next five years, but demand will eventually slow as Gen Z and Gen Alpha, the next big wave of homebuyers, are smaller than previous generations. This could lead to an increase in remodeling and tear-down work as the housing stock ages.

    Immigration is a wild card that's difficult to predict, and its impact on population growth will depend on various factors, including government policies and enforcement efforts.

    By 2035, households will become older and more diverse, with a significant increase in multigenerational households. The share of households headed by people of color is also expected to rise as baby boomers change their living arrangements or pass away. However, households headed by someone under 35 are projected to decline due to lower population growth resulting from immigration.