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panel of builders at the 2025 CCIM Miami Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference predicted a slowdown in multifamily and luxury home development for South Florida. The discussion, moderated by Albert Arisso of Vertix Group, featured Gaetano Caltagirone from The Calta Group, Ellen Buckley from Prospera Real Estate Collective, and Jeffrey Ardizon from The Estate Companies.

    Prospera's recent experience with a potential multifamily development site purchase serves as an example. Due to high construction costs and insurance expenses, the deal didn't pencil out for Buckley's firm. "Needless to say that deal didn't go forward because the fundamentals just didn't work," she said. Prospera is now focused on a townhouse development near North Miami.

    Multifamily developers face increased scrutiny from potential equity investors, according to Ardizon. Institutional investors now require hard numbers and are less satisfied with economic models forecasting rent growth. Despite temporary oversupply in certain submarkets, units are being absorbed, and concessions will likely subside as demand outpaces supply by the end of 2025.

    Luxury home development has been challenging due to rising construction costs, including higher interest rates and insurance. However, some submarkets still experience fast sales. The Calta Group recently secured a $30 million construction loan for a 10-townhome project in Coral Gables. Caltagirone predicts that luxury homebuilders will focus on developing smaller lots (7,500 square feet or less) to cater to young professionals who can afford homes in the low six figures.