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ontemporary city condominiums in Chattanooga, Tennessee

    Marcia Straub | Moment | Getty Images

    This article first appeared in CNBC’s Property Play newsletter, co‑authored with Diana Olick. Property Play delivers weekly insights on emerging real‑estate opportunities for investors ranging from individuals to institutional funds.

    July marked a pivotal shift in commercial‑real‑estate competition, with bid activity rising for the first time in over a year. The trend persisted into October, where JLL’s Global Bid Intensity Index recorded the second‑highest monthly increase in the past twelve months. The uptick is partly attributable to the Federal Reserve’s September and October rate cuts, which have refreshed liquidity in private capital markets and signaled growing confidence among institutional investors. “Capital deployment accelerated in Q3, and institutions are signaling stronger market confidence even amid lingering uncertainty,” said Richard Bloxam, JLL’s capital‑markets CEO. “We anticipate continued confidence growth and capital flow expansion through 2026.”

    Multifamily housing dominated the competitive landscape, driven by nationwide housing shortages. With an estimated 3.5 million U.S. units still needed and home prices near record highs, renters are staying put, pushing vacancy rates lower once new supply reaches the market. This dynamic fuels robust investor conviction in multifamily assets.

    The industrial and logistics sector also rebounded sharply as trade‑policy uncertainty eased. Retail property competition softened slightly due to a larger inventory of available assets, yet the volume of transactions rose, reflecting renewed consumer and retail spending. The office market is recovering, with bid activity climbing from the lows seen in late 2023, as more bidders and lenders enter the fray.

    Near‑term interest‑rate cuts remain uncertain, especially after stronger‑than‑expected September employment data released late amid a government shutdown. Nonetheless, investors appear less sensitive to timing, still expecting further rate reductions next year. “While uncertainty will continue to shape decisions, the outlook for 2026 looks more positive,” Bloxam added. “After navigating multiple uncertainty periods, investors now exhibit greater risk tolerance, and the robust debt market should further enhance liquidity.”

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