T
he phrase “Escape from New York” has long been a shorthand for the panic that follows a political shift, and it was recently used by Westchester and Florida agents to warn that a socialist mayor could trigger a flight of the city’s wealthiest residents. Yet the latest market data tells a different story.
Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel Inc. report that Manhattan luxury contracts—those above $4 million—rose to 176 in November, a 25 % jump from October’s 141. The growth rate for high‑priced deals more than doubled the overall market. Olshan Realty echoes this trend: 17 contracts over $4 million signed in the last week of November outpaced its 10‑year Thanksgiving average, and total luxury sales climbed 31 % from 115 in October to 151 in November.
These figures run counter to the narrative that New York’s elite are abandoning the city. Mayor‑elect Zohran Mamdani, who won the Democratic primary in June, has championed eviction protections, rent freezes, and a 2 % income‑tax surcharge for those earning over $1 million. While some Westchester agents, such as Zach and Heather Harrison of the Harrison Team at Compass, noted an uptick in Manhattan residents inquiring about suburban properties, Olshan Realty’s president Donna Olshan insists there is no “Mamdani effect” and that the data does not support a mass exodus.
Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., told Fortune that the trend of affluent buyers purchasing luxury New York real estate has persisted throughout 2025. “Year‑over‑year, sales, prices, and rents have all risen, and inventory has not kept pace,” he said. “The anecdotal fears of a flight are not backed by data.”
High earners have strong incentives to stay. Wall Street’s bonuses in 2024 were the largest since 1987, and a November report from Johnson Associates Inc. projects a 25 % increase in payouts for investment bankers, traders, and wealth‑management professionals in 2025. These financial rewards, coupled with the city’s cultural and professional opportunities, keep wealthy residents anchored.
The idea that New York would become a ghost town during the pandemic was also unfounded. Between 2020 and 2021, the five boroughs gained roughly 10,000 millionaires, and Manhattan added 17,500 residents in 2022, largely from other boroughs. The city’s population peaked at 8.8 million in 2020, fell to 8.36 million in 2022, and has since shown modest growth. The NYC Department of City Planning argues that the pandemic’s impact was a temporary shock, not a long‑term decline.
In short, the market data and demographic trends suggest that the city’s wealthiest are not fleeing en masse. The fears of a “New York exodus” appear to be a classic misinformation scenario, with no evidence to support the claim.
