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TTAWA — CREA has revised its 2025 home‑sales outlook, now projecting a milder decline of 1.1 % from 2024, down from the 3 % cut in July. The association now expects 473,093 residential transactions, a modest drop after a 5.2 % YoY rise in September sales (39,700 units versus 37,721 in September 2024). While BC, Alberta and Ontario are still forecast to see reduced activity, gains elsewhere should offset the downturn.

    The update follows a series of earlier revisions. In January, CREA had predicted an 8.6 % YoY increase for 2025, but U.S. tariff concerns prompted a flat‑growth forecast three months later. The agency also projects the national average price to fall 1.4 % to $676,705 in 2025, with only BC and Ontario expected to decline; the rest of the country should see price gains of 4–8 %.

    Senior economist Shaun Cathcart noted that pent‑up demand and normalized interest rates should sustain upward momentum into the final quarter of 2025 and into 2026. CREA now forecasts a 7.7 % rebound in 2026, reaching 509,479 sales, up from the 6.3 % gain previously projected. The average price is expected to rise 3.2 % to $698,622 next year.

    September’s data show the national average sale price up 0.7 % YoY to $676,154, while CREA’s home‑price index slipped 0.1 % from August to September 2025. Although sales increased year‑over‑year, they fell 1.7 % from August, ending a five‑month streak of monthly gains. BMO economist Robert Kavcic remarked that sales are returning to pre‑COVID levels, yet affordability remains a hurdle; lower mortgage rates or further price drops would be needed to clear the market. He added that a dip into the low‑three‑percent rate range could spark renewed activity, though that has not yet materialized.

    New listings fell 0.8 % from August, with 199,772 properties on the market at month‑end, a 7.5 % rise YoY. ©2025 The Canadian Press