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n overview of Asia’s commercial real‑estate landscape reveals that mainland China and Hong Kong are the most vulnerable. Knight Frank data indicate that, aside from Ho Chi Minh City and Taipei, only China’s first‑tier cities and Hong Kong will see office‑rent declines this year. In investment, MSCI reports a 7 % rise in Asia‑Pacific transaction volumes for the first three quarters of 2025, but a 16 % drop in mainland China. PwC and the Urban Land Institute’s survey shows Hong Kong’s deal activity has improved yet it remains outside the region’s top‑10 cities for 2026 investment.

    The housing crisis in China is worsening. State‑backed China Vanke, one of the few large developers still avoiding default, teeters on the brink of collapse. Fitch Ratings notes that property‑specific measures have lost effectiveness, accelerating the fall in secondary‑home prices in Tier 1 cities. Additional weakness is evident in Hong Kong’s industrial and logistics sector, where vacancy rates hit record highs, and in mainland China’s prime shopping‑centre rents, which continue to decline.

    Nevertheless, signs of resilience emerge. Hong Kong’s housing market is rebounding: second‑hand prices rose for the sixth consecutive month in November, rents peaked in September, and primary sales are projected at roughly 20,000 units for the year—the highest since 2004. Even the retail sector, battered by a “leakage of domestic consumption” amid rising outbound travel, shows stabilisation: November retail sales grew 6.5 % year‑on‑year, the third consecutive month above 6 % (albeit aided by a low base).