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ealtor.com projects a 2.2% national rise in home prices for 2026, but several large U.S. metros—primarily in the Midwest and Northeast—are expected to outpace that average. The agency attributes the overall moderation to a larger supply of homes, yet the impact will be uneven. Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst, notes that the Midwest and Northeast have sustained robust demand because inventory remains tight, whereas the South and West are seeing price growth stall or decline as new construction adds supply.

    The 11 cities expected to record the steepest gains in 2026 are:

    1. Toledo, Ohio – 13.1% (median $199,900)

    2. Syracuse, New York – 12.4% (median $298,950)

    3. Scranton–Wilkes‑Barre–Hazleton, Pennsylvania – 10.9% (median $260,000)

    4. Rochester, New York – 10.3% (median $256,900)

    5. Hartford–West Hartford–East Hartford, Connecticut – 9.5% (median $429,000)

    6. Baltimore–Columbia–Towson, Maryland – 8.3% (median $375,000)

    7. New Haven–Milford, Connecticut – 7.7% (median $439,000)

    8. Winston‑Salem, North Carolina – 7.7% (median $342,899)

    9. Albany–Schenectady–Troy, New York – 7.5% (median $419,900)

    10. Columbia, South Carolina – 7.2% (median $303,300)

    11. Milwaukee–Waukesha–West Allis, Wisconsin – 7.0% (median $379,000)

    Realtor.com’s metro‑level forecasts combine its own listings data with local inventory, new‑construction activity, employment, income trends, and mortgage‑rate expectations. In markets where housing additions have been minimal, even modest demand can push prices higher; conversely, metros with heavier construction may see declines of up to 10% in 2026.

    The cities with the largest projected gains have historically experienced limited new development, keeping supply tight. Most of them also have median prices well below the national average of roughly $415,000, with only three—Hartford, New Haven, and Albany—exceeding that benchmark. Toledo, for example, offers a median price of $199,900, far below Ohio’s state median of about $275,000.

    In the Northeast, buyers are drawn to these smaller markets for their affordability and commutable proximity to high‑cost hubs like New York and Boston. The lag in new construction in many older, built‑out Northeastern metros has amplified supply constraints, magnifying the price impact of even modest demand growth.