T
he Trump administration's proposal to introduce a "golden visa" program, offering U.S. citizenship in exchange for $5 million investments, has sent shockwaves through the commercial real estate sector. While some see it as an opportunity to attract high-net-worth investors and boost demand for luxury properties, others worry that it may crowd out existing programs like EB-5 and limit access to foreign capital.
The program's ambiguity is causing concern among industry experts, who point out that there are no concrete details on how income from the golden visa will be allocated or if real estate development will benefit. "It's all really unclear," says Sam Chandan, founding director of New York University's Chao-Hon Chen Institute for Global Real Estate Finance.
The EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program, currently the primary vehicle for foreign investment in U.S. real estate, requires at least an $800,000 investment in exchange for a green card. However, its broad outline has intrigued investors, who see it as a potential game-changer due to tax benefits and expedited access to the U.S. market.
"We're getting two types of calls," says Basil Mohr-Elzeki, managing partner at Henley & Partners. "One is about EB-5, and the other is about the golden visa." While some analysts believe that the prognosis for the golden visa remains uncertain, others see it as a boon to U.S. commercial real estate.
Alex Foshay, executive vice chairman of Newmark's international capital markets, believes that the program will increase demand and asset prices for high-end offices in gateway cities. "Typically, this type of offshore capital will pay top dollar for newly built or renovated office product," he says.
However, replacing EB-5 with the golden visa would likely have significant consequences for the regional investment industry, which has formed around the program since its inception 35 years ago. "It would wipe out and destroy" the existing infrastructure, warns G. Lamont Blackstone, a commercial real estate consultant.
The administration's silence on key issues, such as the application process and legal framework of the program, is also causing concern among industry experts. If the golden visa replaces EB-5 outright, it would require an act of Congress, which may not be feasible in the near future.
Despite these uncertainties, some analysts believe that the U.S. remains an attractive destination for high-net-worth individuals and families. "The U.S. ranked second in attracting millionaires via migration in 2024," says Mohr-Elzeki. "Families would want their kids to grow up here."
