E
xperts warn that the “silver tsunami” of baby‑boomer downsizing will arrive slowly, not as a single surge. Zillow’s 2019 forecast projected 920,000 homes entering the market each year from 2017‑27, rising to 1.17 million by 2027‑37—an extra 440,000 homes annually in the second decade. Yet agents Lindsey Harn of the Lindsey Harn Group and Gerson Seise of Gerson Seise Realty say the influx will spread over 10–20 years as retirees move closer to family or pass properties on to the next generation.

    Harn explains that seniors often weigh options for months, making the process slower. In San Luis Obispo County she sees more multi‑story builds but few single‑level, retirement‑friendly homes. “Finding suitable housing will be the biggest hurdle,” she says. “Many may leave the state for places like Arizona or Idaho where choices are broader.”

    For boomers planning to downsize and younger buyers eyeing entry, early preparation is key. Harn advises seniors to map out their next phase now, while buyers should view the next one to five years as promising. More large homes in desirable neighborhoods are expected to surface, offering families a chance to secure their dream property. “Know your goals and be ready when the right home appears,” she adds.

    Seise offers three pillars for millennials and Gen Z to navigate inventory swings and rate changes: maintain a healthy debt‑to‑income ratio, secure a reliable income stream, and keep credit in good shape. “These fundamentals outweigh chasing the perfect rate or timing the market,” he says. “A solid financial base lets you act decisively when the right home shows up, regardless of market noise.”

    Thus, while the silver tsunami will arrive, it will do so in a measured, year‑by‑year cadence, demanding thoughtful planning from both aging sellers and emerging buyers.