The results of the 2026 developer survey by the BFW regional association Berlin/Brandenburg paint a critical picture of the housing industry situation in the federal capital. All surveyed companies rate the current situation as negative or rather negative. Not a single market participant provided a positive assessment. The view of the political framework following the Berlin elections is equally unambiguous: 73 per cent of businesses classify the outcome as negative for the sector, while the remaining 27 per cent evaluate it as rather negative.
This pronounced loss of confidence is directly reflected in concrete project planning. The five-year pipeline for new flats in Berlin among companies organised within the BFW dropped by more than 31 per cent compared to the previous year. The planned volume fell from 12,246 units to just 8,431 homes. The association cites persistent uncertainties as the primary causes, including the debate over socialisation and plans for new social housing quotas in existing housing stock without state compensation.
Real signs of a slowdown in the Berlin market
Member companies report noticeable consequences for operational business. Alongside cancellations from long-standing investors, developers are registering marked restraint on the buyer side, growing planning uncertainty, and a withdrawal of financing institutions from the Berlin market. In addition, new construction cannot be separated from the conditions in existing housing stock: further interventions drain the equity from market participants that is strictly necessary for new building projects.
- —Cancellations from long-standing investors and noticeable restraint among buyers
- —Growing uncertainties surrounding long-term calculated residential construction projects
- —Increasing withdrawal of financing banks from the Berlin market
Growing project volumes in surrounding Brandenburg
Neighbouring Brandenburg presents a stark contrast to the situation in Berlin. While project volume in the capital has declined sharply, the five-year pipeline in the neighbouring state grew by almost twelve per cent to 8,312 flats. This development demonstrates the mobility of capital and construction capacity, which migrate to where reliable and economically viable framework conditions are offered.
Michael Kranz, Chairman of the BFW regional association Berlin/Brandenburg, urged a realignment ahead of coalition negotiations. A pipeline drop of more than 31 per cent is not ordinary market noise, he warned, but shows that Berlin is losing its future. Kranz called on the future state government to restore trust and reliability and to guarantee the protection of property, stating that housing construction targets would otherwise remain out of reach.
