According to the latest United Nations climate report, the target established in the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is no longer considered achievable. Ahead of the forthcoming climate conference in Turkey in November, pressure on the international community to take action is growing. Andreas Ehrbar, Chief Operating Officer of aream Group, emphasised that whilst the target will be missed, the consequences must inevitably be contained. Every additional temperature increase heightens risks such as flooding, heatwaves, and wildfires.
According to the UN report, current efforts are focused on minimising the scale of this overshoot scenario and bringing temperatures back down to or below 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century. Ehrbar views this undertaking as extraordinarily challenging, as the window of opportunity continues to shrink. In the United Nations' most optimistic scenario, warming could initially be limited to 1.7 to 1.8 degrees Celsius before a reduction succeeds.
Global mitigation targets and infrastructural requirements
To adhere to this pathway, a drastic reduction in worldwide greenhouse gas emissions compared to 2025 levels is required. The model outlined by the United Nations demands significant milestone targets for the coming decades:
- —An 18 per cent reduction in worldwide emissions by 2030
- —A 45 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035
- —A 69 per cent decrease in emissions by 2040
- —Permanent removal and storage of immense quantities of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
Even the United Nations classifies the feasibility of technical carbon capture and permanent storage as uncertain. Ehrbar highlights that the expansion of renewable energies, electricity grids, and modern storage capacities must be accelerated worldwide. However, practical implementation across the energy sector also demonstrates noticeable infrastructural bottlenecks during ongoing operations.
Portfolio results in the European energy sector
The September yield figures from the aream Group portfolio reflect current framework conditions. Photovoltaic installations in Germany achieved only 76 per cent of their target; taking compensated curtailments into account, the figure was 98 per cent. Alongside curtailments, temporary grid shutdowns and minor operational faults prevented a better result. In Spain, solar installations recorded target achievement of 62 per cent, which would have reached 94 per cent including uncompensated curtailments.
Italian photovoltaic assets showed robust performance, recording an achievement level of 99 per cent despite persistent voltage fluctuations in the power grid. The group's German wind power assets reached just under 91 per cent of their monthly target. This outcome materialised despite wind conditions that varied considerably by region, one throttled system, and compensated grid curtailments of around 1,500 megawatt-hours; without these regulatory interventions, yield would have stood at a full 100 per cent.
