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2025 Housing Market Forecasts from NAR's Chief Economist

2025 Housing Market Outlook by NAR’s Lawrence Yun: Sales, mortgage rates, inventory—expert predictions.

T
he housing market is a hot topic as 2025 approaches, and the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) has a clear view on what to expect. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun notes that, although sales have been sluggish, falling mortgage rates and a growing inventory signal a brighter outlook for the coming year.

    **Why the slowdown?**

    High borrowing costs and a tight supply have kept buyers on the sidelines. Think of a library with only a few books—finding a home feels similarly difficult. But rates are easing, and more listings are appearing, creating a more balanced market.

    **Yun’s 2025 forecast**

    - **Sales rise**: Lower rates and more inventory should lift home sales throughout the year.

    - **Wealth‑driven upgrades**: Homeowners with increased equity and a booming stock market are poised to trade up, fueling activity in the higher‑end segment.

    - **Affordability gap**: Starter homes remain scarce, so buyers in the lower price range still face challenges despite cheaper rates.

    **Midwest as a magnet**

    The Midwest has emerged as the most attractive region, with median prices 22 % below the national average. Its affordability draws buyers who might otherwise be priced out elsewhere, and the expected market improvements could amplify interest here.

    **August 2025 snapshot (NAR Existing‑Home Sales Report)**

    - **Sales**: Slight month‑over‑month dip (‑0.2 %) but a 1.8 % year‑over‑year gain, totaling 4.0 million units annually.

    - **Inventory**: Up 11.7 % YoY to 1.53 million units, a 4.6‑month supply—more options for buyers.

    - **Median price**: $422,600, up 2 % YoY.

    - **Single‑family homes**: MoM down 0.3 % but YoY up 2.5 %; median price +1.9 % to $427,800.

    - **Condos**: MoM flat, YoY down 5.1 %; median price +0.6 % to $366,800.

    - **Regional trends**: Northeast sales fell both MoM and YoY, prices rose 6.2 %; Midwest sales grew MoM and YoY, prices up 4.5 %; South saw a YoY increase of 3.4 % despite a MoM decline; West had a modest MoM rise but a YoY drop, with prices up 0.6 %.

    - **Market dynamics**: Median days on market 31 (up from 28), first‑time buyers 28 % of sales, cash transactions 28 %, investor purchases 21 %, distressed sales 2 %.

    - **Mortgage rates**: 30‑year fixed at 6.59 %, down from 6.72 % in July and close to last year’s 6.50 %.

    **What this means for 2025**

    - **Buyers**: More inventory and easing rates give them leverage; bidding wars should ease outside the hottest markets.

    - **Sellers**: Competitive pricing and presentation remain key; well‑maintained homes still sell, but overpricing can stall sales.

    - **Affordability**: The Midwest will likely see sustained demand; buyers in pricier regions may need creative financing or consider secondary markets.

    - **Trade‑up segment**: Homeowners with strong equity will drive a significant portion of sales, seeking larger or more luxurious properties.

    Overall, Yun’s analysis suggests a market that is healing and stabilizing, moving away from extreme price swings toward a more balanced, accessible environment for both buyers and sellers.

    **Investing opportunity**

    For those looking to expand a real‑estate portfolio, high‑quality, ready‑to‑rent properties in top U.S. markets offer consistent returns. Contact Norada’s investment counselors at (800) 611‑3060 to explore options and grow your holdings with confidence.

Chief Economist presents 2025 housing market forecast chart.