T
oday’s discussion centers on China’s macro figures and Vanke’s potential default. Vanke, once the country’s top sales‑by‑volume developer, failed to secure enough backing to postpone payment on a US$283 million note due 15 December. The proposed one‑year extension, along with two other options, was rejected, leaving the company to raise funds by Monday’s close or within a five‑day grace period, otherwise creditors could declare default. Although Vanke had long counted on support from its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro, the group’s recent announcement to tighten borrowing terms has triggered a sharp drop in Vanke’s bond prices. Despite the housing slump—now in its fifth year—China’s property sector has shrunk to a smaller share of the economy, limiting systemic spillovers. Yet household wealth tied to real estate still fuels sentiment and the wealth effect, albeit with a reduced impact on growth. China will publish November’s macro data, likely showing weak domestic demand, lower retail sales, and reduced fixed‑asset investment, while industrial output may hold up thanks to export demand.