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sing a two‑stage free‑cash‑flow‑to‑equity approach, Ying Li International Real Estate’s fair‑value estimate is S$0.024. The market price of S$0.029 indicates the stock is trading near its intrinsic value, while peers are priced at a higher premium to fair value, with an industry average of –115%.
To derive this intrinsic value, we project the company’s future cash flows and discount them to present value with a discounted‑cash‑flow (DCF) model. The two‑stage model applies a higher growth rate in the first decade, followed by a lower, more stable growth phase. Because no analyst FCF forecasts are available, we extrapolate from the last reported figure, assuming a decelerating shrinkage for declining cash flows and a slowing growth for expanding ones. This reflects the typical pattern that early‑year growth is more volatile than later years.
We discount the projected cash flows at 11% to account for the time value of money. The resulting present value of the 10‑year cash flow stream is CN¥200 million.
| Year | Levered FCF (CN¥ m) | Growth % | Discounted PV (CN¥ m) |
|------|---------------------|----------|-----------------------|
| 2026 | 39.4 | –14.94% | 35.5 |
| 2027 | 35.5 | –9.73% | 28.9 |
| 2028 | 33.4 | –6.09% | 24.5 |
| 2029 | 32.2 | –3.54% | 21.3 |
| 2030 | 31.6 | –1.76% | 18.9 |
| 2031 | 31.5 | –0.51% | 17.0 |
| 2032 | 31.6 | 0.37% | 15.4 |
| 2033 | 31.9 | 0.98% | 14.0 |
| 2034 | 32.3 | 1.41% | 12.8 |
| 2035 | 32.9 | 1.71% | 11.8 |
The sum of these discounted cash flows confirms the CN¥200 million present value, supporting the S$0.024 fair‑value estimate.
