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During the pandemic, Florida’s housing market surged as people sought warmer weather, lower taxes and more space. That boom has pushed Miami into the world’s most at‑risk housing market, according to UBS’s Global Real Estate Bubble Index. Miami earned a bubble‑risk score of 1.73—well above the 1.5 threshold that signals “high” risk—placing it ahead of overheated markets like Los Angeles, Toronto, San Francisco and New York.
The index tracks price‑to‑income and price‑to‑rent ratios, construction activity and mortgage rates. In Miami, affordability has hit record lows while home prices continue to outpace rents. Over the past 15 years, the city has posted the strongest inflation‑adjusted appreciation of any U.S. market, and its current price‑to‑rent ratio now eclipses the extremes seen during the 2006 bubble, underscoring the high bubble risk.
The 2006 bubble collapse wiped out trillions in household wealth, triggered widespread foreclosures and sparked the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. UBS notes that Miami’s housing inventory has rebounded to near pre‑pandemic levels, but regulatory changes are forcing many condo associations to address decades of deferred maintenance, adding hefty repair costs for owners. Rising insurance premiums—driven by flooding and hurricane threats—further pressure owners to sell, tightening the market.
Despite these challenges, UBS does not anticipate a repeat of the 2008 crash. “Price growth is expected to turn negative in the coming quarters, but a sharp correction seems unlikely at this stage,” the report states. Miami’s coastal allure and the state’s lack of income tax continue to attract newcomers from across the country.
Meanwhile, Jeff Bezos has launched a $100 landlord program that lets people become property owners without dealing with tenants or maintenance. For those like a 49‑year‑old with no retirement savings, Dave Ramsey warns that nearly half of Americans make a critical Social Security mistake and offers three simple steps to correct it.
