T
he U.S. housing market has endured a harsh stretch over the past few years. After the pandemic pushed mortgage rates below 3%, they surged to an 8% peak in October 2023 and now sit in the low‑6% range. Home prices, measured by the Case‑Shiller index, are roughly 55% higher than at the start of 2020.
Signs are turning in favor of buyers. Mortgage applications jumped nearly 30% last week, and prices are beginning to level off or decline in several regions. “The market is finally listening to buyers,” said First American chief economist Mark Fleming in an August 29 post.
A Realtor.com analysis indicates the optimal buying window is the week of Oct. 12‑18, 2025. The report, based on six supply‑and‑demand metrics from 2018‑2024, points to a rare mix of increased inventory, lower prices, and reduced competition. “After years of tight conditions, 2025 offers buyers more options,” said Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale. “The seasonal shift will amplify fall’s buyer‑friendly trends.”
While spring traditionally sees the most activity, it also brings higher prices and fierce competition. Realtor.com data projects a 32.6% rise in homes for sale compared to early 2025, median prices could drop by up to $15,000 during peak season, and competition may be 30.6% lower during the Oct. 12‑18 window. Steph Mahon of Dwell New Jersey advises buying before the holidays to complete inspections and paperwork ahead of Thanksgiving, avoiding seasonal stress.
Timing varies by market. The national “best week” applies to many metros such as Houston, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C., but 45 of the 50 largest cities will hit their peak within a month of the national average. New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta, and Dallas see buyer‑friendly conditions starting in September. Manhattan’s September surge in new listings coincides with the lowest contract volume, according to UrbanDigs CEO Noah Rosenblatt. Florida markets, including Miami and Tampa, may peak as late as December. Philadelphia and Milwaukee already experienced their best weeks from Sept. 7‑13.
South Florida’s season is driven by renters, snowbirds, and families seeking winter homes, with a three‑and‑a‑half‑year buildup of demand, says Echo Fine Properties CEO Jeff Lichtenstein. Early starts also appear in Hartford, Memphis, and Virginia Beach. For Charlotte, Louisville, Phoenix, Miami, and Tampa, November is likely the most advantageous period.
Lichtenstein stresses the importance of pre‑approvals and understanding out‑of‑state contracts. “The more prepared you are, the less likely you’ll miss a deal,” he says.
Finally, the Fortune Global Forum will convene Oct. 26‑27, 2025 in Riyadh, inviting CEOs and global leaders to shape business’s future. Apply for an invitation.
