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*Mortgage rates edge toward 6% as the Fed hints at cuts**
By September 13 2025, 30‑year fixed rates sit between 6.1 % and 6.3 %, a modest decline from early September. The 15‑year fixed line is around 5.45 %, while a 5/1 ARM starts near 5.75 %. The 10‑year Treasury yield, a key benchmark, is 3.82 %, down from 4.05 % in mid‑August but still above the level that would push mortgage rates decisively under 6 %.
| Period | 30‑yr Fixed | 15‑yr Fixed | 10‑yr Treasury |
|--------|-------------|-------------|----------------|
| Aug 15‑31 | 6.35 % | 5.65 % | 4.05 % |
| Sep 1‑7 | 6.25 % | 5.55 % | 3.95 % |
| Sep 8‑13 | 6.15 % | 5.45 % | 3.82 % |
The trend is a gentle slide, but daily swings still occur as new data arrive.
**What’s driving the move?**
1. **Fed policy** – The September 17‑18 meeting could see a 25‑basis‑point cut, potentially trimming mortgage rates by 0.1‑0.2 %. If inflation or wage growth outpaces expectations, the Fed may hold, keeping rates above 6 %. Fannie Mae analysts project a 5.9 % level by year‑end if a cut occurs; MBA cautions that stubborn service‑sector inflation could delay sub‑6 % rates until late in the year.
2. **Inflation & labor** – August’s CPI fell to 2.5 %, close to the Fed’s 2 % target, easing pressure on long‑term rates. However, the jobs report added 142 k positions and kept unemployment at 4.2 %, signaling a robust economy that can push rates higher. Global oil price volatility also keeps inflation in play.
3. **Housing supply** – Listings rose 15 % YoY, offering more choices and tempering price spikes, but affordability remains strained. A 6.15 % rate means a $400 k loan costs roughly $2,440 per month, discouraging many from selling and keeping supply tight.
**Historical context**
Rates peaked at 7.8 % late 2022 after the Fed’s aggressive hikes. Since then, they’ve fallen 1.65 %, briefly dipping below 6 % in early 2023 but rebounding. The pandemic saw rates drop to 2.65 % in 2020, then climb again as inflation surged. Current trends mirror the 2024‑25 period of gradual easing, suggesting a possible sustained sub‑6 % phase if the Fed cuts.
**Expert outlook**
- Wells Fargo: 5.95 % by end‑September if a cut occurs.
- JPMorgan: 6.10 % if wages remain steady.
- Average of 20 economists: 6.05 % by September’s end.
Probabilities:
- 70 % chance of a cut and cooling inflation → 5.85 %.
- 20 % chance of no cut → 6.10 %.
- 10 % chance of stronger jobs/inflation → 6.35 %.
ARMs offer a 0.4 % lower initial rate but can adjust after the first year.
**What this means for the market**
- **Buyers**: A drop below 6 % could spur a 5‑7 % rise in mortgage applications, increasing competition. Even a 0.15 % cut saves about $30/month on a $300 k loan. Closing costs (2‑5 %) should still be budgeted.
- **Sellers**: More buyers may enter; pricing slightly below comparable homes can attract rate‑sensitive buyers.
- **Refinancers**: A sub‑6 % rate could make refinancing attractive for many homeowners, especially if they can shave 0.5 % off their current rate.
- **Investors**: REITs tied to housing may see better returns as rates ease.
- **Income disparity**: Larger mortgages benefit more from rate cuts, potentially widening the gap between high‑ and low‑income households. Policymakers are exploring down‑payment assistance to mitigate this.
**Bottom line**
The data and expert consensus suggest a real chance that 30‑year rates will fall below 6 % before the end of September 2025, especially if the Fed cuts. Stay alert to Fed announcements and economic releases; if rates dip, act promptly whether buying, selling, or refinancing.
**Capitalize on rising rates**
With rates expected to stay high in 2025, focus on stable, income‑generating real estate. Norada offers turnkey rental properties in resilient markets, building steady cash flow and protecting wealth from borrowing volatility.
**Contact a Norada investment counselor today (no obligation): (800) 611‑3060**
**Explore more:**
- Mortgage Rate Forecasts for 2025‑26
- Morgan Stanley’s 2025 Rate Outlook
- Why 2‑3 % Rates Are Out of Reach
- How Lower Rates Save You Thousands
- Strategies for Securing a Low Mortgage Rate
- Future of 4 % Mortgage Rates
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