A
looming trade storm is brewing on the horizon, one that could have a significant impact on new home construction in the United States. While the current tariff war dominates headlines, another import tax may be on its way, courtesy of an ongoing dispute over Canadian softwood lumber.

    The U.S. Department of Commerce has proposed more than doubling anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood lumber from 14.5% to 34.45%, citing unfair subsidies that allow Canada to sell the goods at below-market rates. This move would target the largest supplier of softwood lumber to the U.S., with over 80% of imports coming from Canada.

    The National Association of Home Builders warns builders to "plan accordingly," as these duties are separate from other tariffs proposed by President Trump and will take effect later this summer, pending a final review in August or September. The NAHB has previously estimated that Trump's tariffs could increase the cost of building a new home by $9,200.

    The proposal has sparked debate, with some arguing it will give domestic lumber companies an opportunity to increase production, even if that means higher costs for consumers. However, others warn that Canada supplies such a large share of lumber because the U.S. "simply can't produce it alone," and that reducing imports could lead to spiking prices.

    As the trade dispute continues, one thing is clear: builders should be prepared for potential price increases and plan accordingly to mitigate any impact on new home construction.