M
arket momentum in the commercial real estate sector is gaining traction, with LightBox's CRE Activity Index surging to 104.4 in March, its highest level since June 2022. This reading marks only the second triple-digit score in nearly three years and reflects a 25.2% year-over-year increase. The index's 4.7% month-over-month gain underscores growing investor confidence.

    Despite this optimism, the market is now facing fresh uncertainty following last week's announcement of sweeping new tariffs. "The commercial real estate sector has shown remarkable resilience in the face of volatility," said Manus Clancy, head of Data Strategy at LightBox. Rising listings and consistent lender activity indicate that investors are finding opportunities even in an uncertain economic environment.

    LightBox's CRE Activity Index measures national activity across key functions supporting CRE transactions, including property listings, environmental due diligence, and appraisals. The index is normalized to account for variations in business days per month, providing a consistent measure of market trends. March's triple-digit reading signals increasing transactional velocity across asset types and geographies.

    The three core metrics behind the Index reflect a clear trajectory of growth: property listings jumped 56% year-over-year, phase I environmental site assessments rose 3% year-over-year and 12% from February volume, and lender-driven commercial appraisal awards climbed 6% year-over-year and increased by 5% from February. While equities declined and the 10-year Treasury yield swung sharply in March, LightBox analysis suggests that the CRE market may be decoupling from broader market volatility.

    "Commercial real estate deal activity is showing real momentum," said Dianne Crocker, research director at LightBox. "March's Index reaching a new high is an encouraging sign, but with last week's tariff announcement injecting fresh uncertainty into the market, the outlook for April is far less predictable."