E
very four years in Washington D.C., the real estate market experiences its own shake-up, separate from the changes on Pennsylvania Avenue. As new presidential staff and congressional aides arrive, there's a surge of potential homebuyers. However, with interest rates above 6% and rental prices up by a quarter, it remains to be seen whether people will opt for buying or renting.

    Daniel Heider, a real estate expert, notes that the idea of a massive influx of new residents is overblown. "Staffers working for government organizations often can't afford to buy right away," he explains. "They need time to get familiar with the area and are uncertain about their long-term stay."

    According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), presidential elections have a positive impact on the national housing market, but in D.C., the effect is even more pronounced the year after an election, with a 10% increase in home sales.

    Heider predicts that interest rates will drop, consumer confidence will rise, and affordability will improve, leading to a significant shift in the market. "We expect a strong fall market, followed by a big spring market," he says. With renewed interest in downtown properties due to the Capitals and Wizards staying put, and crime on the decline, housing inventory is increasing.

    However, with median home prices rising by an average of 5% after an election, and mortgage rates still high, it's a challenging time for buyers. Heider notes that the Trump administration was an exception in terms of luxury market activity, as many cabinet members were already accustomed to high-end markets like New York or San Francisco.

    Ultimately, NAR suggests that while presidential elections can influence the market, they're not as significant as mortgage rates and changes in high-paying jobs.