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alifornia’s housing market has long been a roller‑coaster, but Anaheim may have crossed a point of no return. A new Redfin study shows Anaheim is the only California metro unlikely to regain pre‑pandemic affordability, even if home prices stay flat for the next decade.

    Redfin uses a mortgage‑payment‑to‑income ratio to measure affordability, comparing current levels to July 2018 when housing costs were more sustainable. By that metric, San Francisco has essentially returned to “normal.” Prices there have risen only 8% since 2018, while national values jumped 56%. In the same period, San Francisco incomes grew 7.7% annually, nearly double the national average of 3.9%.

    Oakland is projected to hit similar affordability levels this month if prices remain steady. Austin, Texas, is the next major U.S. metro expected to return to 2018 conditions, but not until March 2027. Sacramento, San Diego, and San Jose are forecast to normalize by late 2028 and early 2029. Anaheim, however, does not appear on any of these lists.

    Anaheim’s home prices have surged so sharply relative to wages that the market may stay structurally unaffordable for the foreseeable future. Redfin’s projections exclude local property taxes and California’s rapidly rising homeowners insurance costs, which could push affordability even further out of reach. Even if the market eventually reverts to historical norms, many residents will still find homeownership out of reach.

    In San Francisco, demand remains strong among well‑paid newcomers. AI firms are establishing offices outside Silicon Valley, offering high salaries and signing bonuses to attract talent. Young tech workers and couples with the means to buy are moving in, viewing the market as a relative value opportunity as incomes rise and prices hold steady.

    Redfin’s head of economic research, Chen Zhao, notes that a return to pre‑pandemic affordability is unlikely in the next decade. “There hasn’t been a cataclysmic event, like a housing crash, that would bring prices down dramatically or a significant decline in mortgage rates,” Zhao said. “All of a sudden, you find yourself back to normal, and there’s not this big adjustment that happened.”

    The study’s findings suggest that Anaheim’s housing market may never return to “normal.” Its steep price growth relative to wages, coupled with rising taxes and insurance costs, creates a structural barrier that could keep affordability out of reach for years to come.