N
ina Hatvany rarely lists a $7 million Pacific Heights property in November, let alone one that needs water‑damage repairs. Yet this week the house will go on the market, and the Compass agent explains that the usual “remediate, stage, wait for next year” plan has been flipped on its head. “We’re doing the opposite now,” she says.
San Francisco has gone from a sluggish market to one of the nation’s hottest real‑estate hotspots. Patrick Carlisle, Compass’s chief market analyst, notes the city’s pace has jumped from “25 mph in recent years to 100 mph in autumn 2025.” The end‑of‑fall slump that normally triggers steep price cuts has been replaced by AI‑driven buyers, lower rates, and a booming stock market, giving sellers a decisive advantage.
In October, San Francisco’s home prices and sales volume reached their highest levels since the mid‑2022 pandemic peak, according to Carlisle’s data preview. Inventory has shrunk by a third compared to last year, as owners fear losing their low mortgage rates. The city is the only Bay Area county that saw no annual inventory increase this fall. Ted Bartlett, a Compass agent, reports that almost every desirable north‑side listing has already sold, and the broker‑tour schedule is the shortest in his 27‑year career. With scarce supply, bidding wars are the norm: 75 % of house sales and nearly 50 % of condo sales closed above list price in October, with an overall 61 % of transactions exceeding the asking price— the highest in the Bay Area. A Duboce Triangle home sold for $2.4 million, $600 k above asking, after just a week on the market.
The competition pushed San Francisco’s median house sale up nearly 6 % to $1.85 million, the highest since June 2022. Two‑bedroom condos rose just over 1 % to $1.26 million, yet sales jumped 40 % YoY in this traditionally hard‑hit segment. Luxury sales over $5 million hit their highest monthly total in four years, with the seven counties of the San Francisco–San Jose metro area recording record‑high $5 million‑plus transactions.
October usually sees agents slash prices to move inventory before the winter slowdown, but this year the number of reductions was about half of last year’s and the lowest in at least eight years. San Francisco was the only Bay Area county that did not see a YoY increase in price cuts, contrary to national trends that saw a 20 % rise. Carlisle calls the shift “from one of the weakest markets in the Bay Area and the country to suddenly one of the strongest.”
Hatvany’s portfolio illustrates the change. She began the season with 20 listings; now only five remain, two of which she rushed onto the market at the end of October after realizing the new rules. “We were like, ‘Hurry up, let’s get on the market before Halloween, because the weather’s still OK, the market’s so strong, and you have a renovated product that everybody’s going to like,’” she says. Turnkey homes still dominate, but even fixer‑uppers—like her water‑damaged Pacific Heights listing—are back on the table. “Renovations suddenly seem quite popular again,” she notes, adding that mold in sheet rock is less of a concern when the space will be taken down anyway.
The trend extends to other neighborhoods. Bartlett recently sold a Noe Valley fixer for just under its $1.5 million asking price; the buyer will likely spend another $1 million on the approved expansion. Bartlett sees this as evidence that people view San Francisco as a long‑term home again, inspired by the city’s new can‑do attitude. “San Francisco government used to be ‘no, but,’ and now it is ‘yes, how?’”
Having survived multiple tech‑era booms and busts, Hatvany warns that the market could shift at any moment. Some sellers hope for an even hotter spring, but she cautions that unexpected events—such as tariff‑driven “Trump Slump” scenarios—could derail momentum. For now, she plans to navigate the holiday season, keeping her Christmas gifts simple and ensuring she has ample time to manage the market’s rapid changes.
