H
ome Depot’s latest earnings show the U.S. housing market is neither stalled nor collapsing, but moving sideways in a gradual, uneven correction. For the quarter ending November 2, the DIY giant posted a modest 2.8 % rise in revenue, largely thanks to its GMS acquisition, while same‑store sales barely budged, up only 0.2 %. CEO Ted Decker said the lack of clear catalysts created “greater than expected pressure,” and the anticipated demand surge in Q3 failed to materialize. “Consumer uncertainty and continued pressure are disproportionately impacting home‑improvement demand,” he added.

    Decker’s unease mirrors the broader housing scene. After years of steep price hikes in major metros, many homes are now losing value—Zillow reports 53 % of U.S. properties have fallen in worth over the past year, the largest decline since 2012, especially in booming Southern and Western towns. A few Midwestern and Northeastern pockets still see modest gains due to tight inventory, but they are the exception. Mortgage applications rose nearly 6 % last week to the strongest pace since September, even as the 30‑year fixed rate hovered around 6.3 %. Refinancing activity, more than double last year’s levels, remains robust yet volatile. Buyers want to move, sellers want to sell, but neither feels the timing is right.

    Home Depot’s flat comparable sales reflect this uncertainty. The usual drivers—investors, flippers, contractors—are not spurring big‑ticket spending. The company’s complaint about a “lack of storms” underscores the deeper issue: a missing reason to act. Why flip a house when prices stay high? Why buy when rates are steep and the government is shut down? Why renovate when affordability is low? These questions affect the entire market, not just Home Depot.

    Consequently, the retailer trimmed its full‑year guidance, warning of slower earnings, increased pressure in Q4, and no clear rebound. Unless mortgage rates drop or prices find a more affordable floor, the market—and its bright‑orange bellwether—will likely keep drifting sideways or slightly downward. Wall Street was unsurprised by the news, but traders were not delighted. Shares fell about 4 % before the market opened on Tuesday and remain down roughly 8 % year‑to‑date.