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fter a spring market that fell short of expectations, a late‑summer rebound in home sales has been a relief for agents and owners. Yet the looming federal shutdown threatens to reverse that momentum. Even with mortgage rates hovering around 6%, Corey Burr, senior vice president at TTR Sotheby’s International Realty, notes that buyers and sellers are re‑emerging post‑summer, but he warns the shutdown could curtail this revival. “The shutdown will erode buyer confidence going forward,” he says.

    Burr explains that the regional market is tightly linked to Capitol Hill actions and federal employment shifts. “Our spring was interrupted by what President Trump called ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2, when new import tariffs were announced. That event, normally the peak of our season, stalled activity for roughly six weeks,” he recalls. The subsequent DOGE cuts also rattled buyers, creating a “frozen” market as prospects grew nervous.

    Using Silver Spring, Maryland, as an indicator, Burr notes that moderately priced homes are lingering longer on the market, a trend he attributes partly to federal layoffs. With federal agencies preparing for further staff reductions as part of the shutdown response, he cautions that additional layoffs could harm the region. “The threat of more cuts will hurt the market,” he says.

    He argues that a “Goldilocks economy” is essential: inflation near 2%, steady job growth, and mortgage rates in the mid‑5% range. Such conditions would allow the Federal Reserve to lower rates further. “If we hit that sweet spot, the 30‑year fixed could drop into the mid‑fives, a level where many homeowners are ready to refinance to better match their current needs,” Burr explains.

    For now, the full consequences of the shutdown and the cessation of federal payments to employees affected by the DOGE cuts remain uncertain. “It would be difficult to sustain this recent uptick if a prolonged shutdown interrupts the market,” he concludes.