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1. FOMO Reigns Supreme
In today's economic climate, people are more afraid of missing out than making a mistake, says Michael Van Konynenburg, Eastdil Secured president. Despite a slowing economy, job markets and consumer sentiment remain strong. As rates have peaked and spreads tightened, the CMBS market is improving.
2. Lower Interest Rates Drive Development
To drive development over the next year, getting costs under control would be a game-changer, says Charlie Foushée, Skanska USA executive vice president. With treasuries above five percent, it's challenging to do real estate deals. Once rates and borrowing costs decrease, proceeds will increase.
3. Election 2024: A Potential Wildcard
The Federal election may bring volatility in the fourth quarter, with some recession risk. Owen Thomas, BXP chairman & CEO, will be watching local election results, while Aaron Fenton, BXP senior vice president, is optimistic about a moderate Board of Supervisors and mayor in San Francisco.
4. Office Shift: Cyclical or Secular?
Kilroy Realty Corporation's Eliott Trencher believes moving to a more cyclical way of thinking could be beneficial. With four years of performance data as a guide, offices aren't falling into the ocean, and people will return to use that space.
5. Market Rankings
New York tops the list for our experts, followed by Boston and Washington, DC. The Bay Area is the strongest on the West Coast, with Seattle and LA close behind. Markets with high exposure to technology and life science clients are struggling.
6. Re-entitling: A Solution to Increased Supply
Office development doesn't pencil out, says Owen Thomas. Rents need to increase significantly to support new development. Communities under pressure to build housing and control costs are re-entitling land from office to residential use.
7. The Return of Leverage
Lenders have been stress testing borrowers for credit quality refinance risk. If lenders take necessary steps, capital can be redeployed. With a real interest in office, industrial, and artificial intelligence, the CMBS market has been a bright spot this year.
8. Lightning Round: Improving Leasing
Experts suggest various solutions to improve leasing, including mandating five-day work weeks (Christopher Roeder), committing to public safety (Rod Diehl), making downtowns safer (David Abbott), and better access to capital for life science companies (Robert Paratte and Gregg Walker).
9. Acquisitions: A New Opportunity?
Eliott Trencher says the fundamentals are improving, with slow but steady progress in leasing. While earnings aren't growing yet, the second derivative is moving in the right direction on the capital markets side.
10. Going Direct to Market
The debt market has improved significantly, with increased liquidity for sectors like industrial and multifamily (Kevin Shannon). Debt is a preferred strategy over equity, and note sales are becoming more popular, allowing investors to go direct to the market without working with borrowers.
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