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ohran Mamdani’s victory in New York City’s mayoral race has sparked speculation that the city’s real‑estate market will plunge, yet brokers report that, as of Wednesday morning, no dramatic shifts have materialized.
Jason Haber, a Compass broker who works in both New York City and Florida, told HousingWire that the “Florida agents calling Mamdani ‘Realtor of the Year’ will be disappointed” and that the win “doesn’t trigger a panic or a rush to leave the city.”
Despite headlines warning of a mass exodus, high‑end inventory remains far below July 2019 levels. In July 2019 the 7‑day average for the top price tier was 58 single‑family homes, 750 co‑ops and 1,497 condos. Since Mamdani’s primary win in late June, the highest inventory was the week ending June 27, with 20 single‑family homes, 830 co‑ops and 1,132 condos.
Bess Freedman, CEO of Brown Harris Stevens, said there has been “no mass exodus” yet, though a few sellers are already considering leaving. “We’ve seen some movement, but nothing dramatic,” she added.
In Fairfield County, Connecticut, Julie Vanderblue, CEO of The Vanderblue Team and president of The Higgins Group, anticipates a modest uptick in demand from New York City buyers. “There will be an effect, but not as extreme as COVID,” she said. “Inventory will again be the main issue, but we won’t see the over‑pricing and frenzy of the pandemic.”
Across the Hudson, Lisa Comito, Regional Manager of Howard Hanna | Rand Realty in Bergen County, New Jersey, expects a slight increase in demand from city residents. “People won’t suddenly feel the need to leave, but some may not want to stay under Mamdani’s leadership,” she explained. She noted that a few agents paused searches during the summer, but she does not foresee a mass exodus. “He won by just over 50 %—only half the population may consider leaving, unlike the 100 % sentiment during COVID.”
Florida brokers echo the potential uptick. Mike Pappas, CEO of The Keyes Company in Miami, said Florida remains a compelling alternative and that the trend of northern metro residents moving south is accelerating. “The foundation was laid years ago; COVID accelerated it, but the weather, lower taxes and cost of living keep drawing people,” he said.
In North Carolina, Jennifer Coleman of Coldwell Banker Advantage noted that buyers from northern metros, especially New York, have long been attracted by the climate. “Many are retiring or have family here, and the lower property values and taxes made the move easier during COVID,” she said.
Vanderblue added that Connecticut has seen similar trends, with people moving from New York for suburban life while still wanting proximity to the city. “This may prompt some to move sooner rather than later,” she said.
Overall, brokers agree that the immediate aftermath of Mamdani’s win is a “wait and see” period. Haber said most people will observe how the new administration shapes itself and who fills key positions before deciding whether to stay or leave. “It will take time for people to do a policy check and a vibe check of the city,” he said. “We’ll see over the next year whether migration patterns are normal or above normal.”
