O
ctober 2025 marks the height of the fall market. Demand is stronger than in recent years, buyers see value, and sellers are growing weary, matching offers. Yet the data is contradictory.

    UrbanDigs chartroom shows Manhattan’s supply rose 2 % YoY—good for buyers—while the 30‑day Liquidity Pace climbed 7.5 %—good for sellers. The average price per square foot fell 5.7 % (buyer‑friendly), yet the average days on market dropped 4.8 % to 80 days (seller‑friendly). The picture is mixed, like a buffet with both caviar and corned beef.

    The story is more detailed. Overall supply up 2 % masks a split: listings below $4 M grew 6 %, while those above fell nearly 12 %. Liquidity Pace is up 8.5 % for sub‑$4 M properties but flat for higher‑priced homes, indicating a cooling luxury segment and a surge in mid‑range sales. Possible drivers include the looming mayoral election, which makes the wealthy more cautious, but the dominant factor is the drop in mortgage rates. Rates are at an 11‑month low, falling 1.5 percentage points from 8 % in fall 2023 to 6.5 %. This boost in purchasing power is evident in the charts, especially for lower‑priced homes that rely on financing.

    Despite uncertainty, New York remains resilient. Opportunities arise before the market becomes crowded and prices rise. After the election, the fog lifts, but the city’s track record of bouncing back is clear. Embrace the uncertainty—like a rare ice‑cream truck that appears once in a while.

    Find a broker who grasps the segmented market that fits your situation and start shopping.

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