T
he Oct. 1 government shutdown has pushed back the September jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, originally due on Oct. 3. If the shutdown continues, other key releases—such as the Oct. 15 consumer price index—may also be delayed. Without these figures, the Federal Reserve could hesitate to adjust policy at its upcoming meeting, potentially keeping mortgage rates higher and slowing economic growth, warns Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.

    Fairweather notes that if the official jobs data mirrored the ADP estimate of 32,000 job cuts, the Fed might consider a 50‑basis‑point cut. However, lacking reliable government data, the Fed is likely to move more cautiously, perhaps trimming only 25 basis points. “If the Fed misreads the situation, we face a greater recession risk,” he cautions on social media.

    Investor uncertainty will rise as the absence of timely data forces speculation on 10‑year Treasury yields, which influence mortgage rates more than short‑term rates. Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American, says the lack of fresh data heightens bond market volatility and complicates expectations of Fed moves.

    Consumer confidence also suffers. Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com, explains that without a shared benchmark, households and policymakers rely on less consistent indicators, increasing market volatility and making it harder to steer the economy.

    The shutdown’s timing dovetails with ongoing real‑estate data‑transparency debates. The National Association of Realtors’ March decision to retain the Clear Cooperation Policy (CCP) while adding a delayed‑marketing option has sparked lawsuits and heated discussions. One side pushes for an open marketplace and full access to listing data; the other defends seller choice and broker discretion.