*
*Mortgage Outlook: September 28 – October 4 2025**

    The 30‑year fixed‑rate is expected to stay near 6.3 %–6.4 %. Minor fluctuations are likely, but a sharp drop or rise is unlikely unless the Friday Nonfarm Payrolls report signals a major shift. Inflation remains stubborn, so rates will probably ease slowly at best.

    **Current National Averages (Sept 29)**

    - 30‑year fixed: 6.35 % (APR 6.42 %)

    - 15‑year fixed: 5.65 % (APR 5.75 %)

    - 30‑year jumbo: 6.39 % (APR 6.43 %)

    - 30‑year FHA: 6.41 % (APR 6.47 %)

    - 30‑year VA: 6.45 % (APR 6.49 %)

    Your personal rate will vary with credit score, down‑payment size, and lender.

    **Week Ahead – Key Driver: Jobs Report**

    - If payroll growth is weaker than expected, investors may shift to Treasuries, pulling mortgage rates down 0.1 %–0.2 %.

    - Stronger growth could raise rates by the same margin as markets anticipate higher inflation or a pause in Fed cuts.

    - No other major events are scheduled to cause large swings.

    **What Moves Rates?**

    - **Treasury Yields:** 10‑year notes near 4.1 % set the benchmark; higher yields push mortgage rates up.

    - **Fed Policy:** Recent cuts (Sept 17) and expectations for more cuts lower borrowing costs, but the effect on mortgage rates is delayed.

    - **Inflation:** Above‑target inflation keeps rates higher; the Fed’s 2 % goal is still a target.

    - **Economic Data:** Consumer spending, manufacturing, CPI, etc., influence expectations of growth and inflation.

    **2025 Rate Path to Date**

    - Started near 7.04 % in January.

    - Fell to mid‑6 % by March.

    - Stayed 6.7 %–6.9 % in summer.

    - Dropped to 6.26 % by Sept 18, then rebounded slightly.

    The trend shows sensitivity to Fed cuts and economic resilience.

    **Expert Consensus**

    - Bankrate’s Greg McBride: rates will “bounce” but settle near 6.5 % by year‑end.

    - Fannie Mae & Mortgage Bankers Association: 6.5 %–6.6 % forecast.

    - NerdWallet: possible dips below 6 % if Fed cuts continue.

    Overall, a gradual easing is expected, tempered by inflation and job market volatility.

    **Practical Advice**

    *Homebuyers*

    - A $400,000 loan at 6.35 % costs about $2,490/month (vs. $2,200 at 5 %).

    - First‑time buyers should consider FHA or VA loans for lower barriers.

    *Refinancers*

    - If your rate is below 4 %, refinancing may not be worthwhile due to the “lock‑in” effect.

    - Wait for further rate declines before acting.

    *General Tips*

    - Shop around: even 0.25 % differences save thousands over 30 years.

    - Improve credit: pay debt, keep bills on time, dispute errors.

    - Lock a rate if you’re buying soon and expect a rise after the jobs report.

    **Housing Market Context**

    - Home prices rose 4.5 % YoY (Oct 2024).

    - Experts predict a slowdown in 2025 as inventory rises.

    - Affordability remains a challenge; the market feels “stuck.”

    - Inflation cooling and a strong job market keep the Fed cautious, leading to rate stability rather than sharp drops.

    **Bottom Line for the Week**

    Expect relative calm, with Friday’s payroll data as the main potential mover. Rates are likely to stay near 6.3 %–6.4 %, with modest shifts of 0.1 %–0.2 %. Stay informed, compare offers, and act when the timing aligns with your financial goals.