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resident-elect Donald Trump's return to the Oval Office has sparked both optimism and apprehension among New York City's commercial real estate community. As a seasoned NYC developer and landlord, Trump's experience could benefit the sector, but his economic policies, such as cutting taxes and implementing high tariffs on imports, raise concerns about increased costs in an already expensive city.

    Many industry players believe that Trump's familiarity with the local market will lead to decisions that make sense for the community. "I would like to think that because he comes from our industry, he's going to be thinking about those sorts of things just inherently," said David Goldoff, president at Camelot Realty Group Cos. and general partner at Penn South Capital.

    Trump's track record during his first term has given commercial real estate figures hope for the sector. With a new administration in place, business decisions no longer have to contend with uncertainty over leadership. "Human resources plans were put on hold. Growth plans were put on hold, in terms of office and commercial real estate, until there was a little more clarity," said Okada & Co. CEO Christopher Okada.

    Okada expects Trump to protect 1031 exchanges, a popular mechanism for avoiding taxes on property sales that helped Trump amass his fortune. He also believes that Trump will renew the opportunity zones program, which defers capital gains taxes for real estate investments in economically distressed communities. The policy has undergone significant changes since its introduction in 2017.

    Trump's most significant policy achievement was the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which introduced opportunity zones. The policy is due to sunset in 2026, but Trump and Congress could extend or add to the program. New York had 514 census tracts classified as opportunity zones, including hundreds across the five boroughs.

    Executives see it as likely that Trump will renew the incentive once in office, given the Republicans' control of both houses and the presidency. "With the Republicans controlling both houses and the Presidency, it makes the ability to extend it much easier," said Miller Samuel CEO Jonathan Miller.

    Miller also believes that a promised change to property tax laws could help property owners in the NYC metro area. Trump introduced a $10K cap on state and local taxes (SALT) as part of the 2017 law, which made living in high-tax states like New York more expensive for middle-class and wealthier residents.

    However, property taxes are the least of housing concerns for many New York apartment tenants who struggle to afford their homes. High demand for housing, record-low vacancy rates, constrained supply, and exaggerated wealth inequality post-pandemic all add to the city's housing crisis. Trump's campaign has been light on housing policy, sticking to talking points blaming illegal immigration for housing shortages.

    Experts are alarmed about new tariffs on imported goods, which could seriously add to the cost of building and inflationary pressures. Tariffs could have long-term economic consequences for the U.S. economy, but they aren't an insurmountable obstacle. "We may have lower interest rates, but then if costs of goods continue to spike, we're going to have to reverse that," said Okada.

    Trump's proposed tax cuts and regulatory cuts have kicked off a stock market surge on expectations of boosted corporate profits, but the nonpartisan nonprofit Committee for Responsible Federal Budget estimated it would add $7.5T to the national debt over the next decade. If Trump's policies cause inflation to rise, Miller said, that may lead to higher interest rates that worsen the distress in NYC's office market.

    There is concern in the industry that Trump may try to take funding away from New York as payback for the way its prosecutors have gone after him and his businesses in recent years. "I'm sure the commercial real estate business is hopeful that there'll be something out of Washington that will help them," said Miller. "But beyond that, given the animosity with the state of New York in general, I'm not so sure that there's going to be tangible benefits to the real estate industry."