T
he North Bay's real estate landscape is shifting, with Marin and Sonoma counties experiencing a resurgence in sales activity. Napa County, however, remains a unique case, balancing buyer and seller interests.
After two years of stagnant sales volumes, the region is finally seeing a change in behavior, driven by an increasing appetite for normalcy. According to BAREIS MLS data, Sonoma County buyers are snapping up homes at a faster pace than last year, with 358 single-family home purchases in March – a 21% increase over 2024.
However, property owners are not keeping pace, introducing only 312 new listings – a 30% decline from the previous year and a historical low. This mismatch between supply and demand is expected to continue, with buyers completing purchases on 252 dwellings – 13% fewer than in 2024.
As spring arrives, the market is heating up, with Sonoma County boasting 780 available homes – a 58% increase from last year's low point. Buyers are re-entering the market, assessing current and new listings to determine whether to purchase.
The absorption rate, a key market indicator, suggests that the supply of available homes will shrink, potentially driving prices upward. With an elevated reading of 32%, Sonoma County is poised for a seller's market, unless a significant influx of new inventory emerges without buyers responding.
Marin County's property owners are struggling to keep up with demand, introducing only 155 new listings – a 29% decline from last year. This scarcity will continue to fuel competition among buyers and create a more challenging environment for those seeking to make Marin their home.
In contrast, Napa County is experiencing a balanced market, with 103 new listings released in March – 20% fewer than last year. Buyers are placing deals into escrow at a slower pace, while closed transactions remain steady. The absorption rate stands at 17%, indicating a balanced market that may shift in favor of buyers or sellers depending on future activity.
As the North Bay's population grows, sales are expected to expand, but not every month will be better. Aiming for consistent growth over time is key, just like creating a healthy diet or fitness plan.
