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ower mortgage rates nudged the housing market in November, lifting existing‑home sales 0.5 % month‑over‑month to a seasonally adjusted 4.13 million, the highest level in nine months, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported. The figure still fell 1 % from last year, when a late‑year surge could not prevent 2024 from recording the lowest sales in nearly three decades. Even with the fall‑season uptick, 2025 is projected to see even fewer sales than the 2024 low unless December delivers an unexpected surge.
“Existing‑home sales rose for the third straight month thanks to lower mortgage rates this autumn,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “However, inventory growth is stalling. Distressed‑property sales are at historic lows and housing wealth is at an all‑time high, so homeowners are not rushing to list during the winter.”
November closings rose 0.5 % from October, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million. Unsold inventory fell 5.9 % from the prior month to 1.43 million units, equating to 4.2 months of supply at the current pace. Although inventory is 7.5 % higher than this time last year and months of supply exceeds last year’s 3.8 months, the market remains more balanced than in the past.
Homebuyers benefited from mortgage rates that averaged 6.24 % in November, the lowest monthly average in over a year, according to Freddie Mac. “Rates stayed above 6.5 % until mid‑September, dampening early‑year sales,” said Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale. “November buyers, who would have gone under contract in September and October, gained from rates near their lowest levels in a year, and rates remain close to that low.”
Median sales prices for existing homes climbed 1.2 % from a year ago to $409,200. Yun noted that wage growth is outpacing price gains, improving affordability, but warned that future affordability could suffer if supply does not keep pace with demand.
Despite the November uptick, home sales remain historically low, constrained by affordability concerns and economic uncertainty, and sellers feel little pressure to negotiate. “Everyone expects the market to rebound, but it’s not happening even with modest rate declines,” said Bankrate housing‑market analyst Jeff Ostrowski. “Higher unemployment and spreading uncertainty are not good for sales.”
Realtor.com’s national housing forecast projects gradual improvements in affordability in 2026, but no dramatic shifts. Mortgage rates are expected to average 6.3 % in 2026, slightly better than the 6.6 % full‑year average projected for 2025, yet still well above the 4 % historic average from 2013‑2019. National home prices are forecast to rise 2.2 % through the end of next year, after a 2 % increase in 2025. Incomes and overall inflation are expected to rise faster than home‑price growth, giving a modest boost to affordability.
Hale added, “Mortgage rates will likely stay near current levels for most of 2026, providing a small improvement in affordability whether measured by absolute payments or relative to income. This should lift sales modestly, but they will remain historically low.”
