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n the past year, roughly one‑third of Manhattan condominium resales ended in a loss, a finding from a new study by brokerage Brown Harris Stevens. The firm examined more than 2,500 condo transactions that closed between July 2024 and July 2025, revealing a sharp divide among buyers.

    Condominiums purchased from 2016 to 2020 suffered the most. Over half of those units sold at a loss, a trend that the report attributes to a decade‑long correction in prices, shifting mortgage rates, and broader economic uncertainty. In contrast, the 700 units sold before 2010 largely appreciated, underscoring how timing played a critical role.

    The decade from 2015 to 2024 was a sluggish period for Manhattan real estate. According to a Miller Samuel report for Douglas Elliman, apartment prices rose less than 10 % during that span. The 2016 condo boom, driven by buyers eager to lock in high prices before the market peaked, contributed to the subsequent stagnation. Luxury properties, however, were less exposed to the downturn: only 20 % of sales above $10 million recorded a loss.

    Policy changes also weighed on the market. A 2017 cap on state and local tax deductions, coupled with a 2019 update to the city’s mansion tax, reduced incentives for high‑net‑worth buyers. The number of New York City millionaires fell from 12.7 % in 2010 to 8.7 % in recent years, partly due to a migration to low‑tax states like Florida, especially during the COVID era.

    Mortgage rates have been a key factor. In 2016, the average 30‑year fixed rate hovered around 3.6 %. Rates dipped to historic lows in 2020 and 2021, but spiked again in 2022, dampening demand and unsettling some buyers. Despite these headwinds, sales rose last year even as inventory remained tight, suggesting that the market may be stabilizing.

    Industry observers predict that easing prices and a potential drop in mortgage rates could restore confidence among homeowners looking to sell. The average price per square foot in Manhattan fell by 3.8 % between 2015 and 2024, but the recent uptick in transactions indicates a possible turnaround in the condo market.