D
oug Bauer, CEO of Tri Pointe Homes, is optimistic about the upcoming spring selling season, citing a strong demand for homes despite supply constraints. He attributes this to the fact that everyone needs a place to live, and the issue lies in land-use control at the state and local level, particularly in high-cost-of-living states like California.

    Bauer believes that the incoming administration could bring positive changes to the housing market, including lower corporate taxes and reduced regulation. He expects the corporate tax rate to remain flat or decrease, which would be a boon for the industry. Additionally, he thinks there will be reform among government agencies, leading to a more favorable regulatory environment.

    This, in turn, could lead to increased investment from banks, particularly in land development and small to medium-sized builders. Bauer notes that public builders like Tri Pointe Homes already have access to financing, but opening up the financial spigot would benefit the industry as a whole. He also expects to see more mergers and acquisitions.

    Other companies in the industry share Bauer's optimism. UWM Holdings, parent company of United Wholesale Mortgage, is positioning itself for a refinance boom, while Rocket Companies, which operates Rocket Mortgage and other brands, has increased its refinance market share and aims to boost it further by 2027.

    Rocket's CFO Varun Krishna highlighted the importance of catering to growth audiences such as women heads of households, Hispanic buyers, and aging first-time buyers. The company is reportedly investing in a new brand identity and plans to return to the Super Bowl in 2025.

    However, not all factors are rosy. Tariffs imposed by Trump could potentially offset tax cuts, leading to increased prices for businesses and their margins. Bauer acknowledges that there are unknowns surrounding mass deportation policies, but doesn't anticipate a significant impact on labor supply or costs.

    Tri Pointe's stock has risen significantly in the past five years, making it one of the more resilient players in the housing market. The company's resilience is attributed to its ability to adapt to changing market conditions, including offering mortgage rate buydowns and building smaller homes to counter soaring rates and prices.