T
he outcome of the 2024 US presidential election may have varying effects on real estate markets at different levels - national, state, and local. Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, shared his insights on how the election and other economic trends will impact the market during the 2024 NAR convention in Boston.

    Yun expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates but not return them to pre-Trump levels near 4%. Instead, he forecasts a range of 5.5% to 6.5%. Yun notes that home sales depend on jobs and rates, with stock market conditions indicating an acceleration in job growth. Prior to the election, Jordan Levine predicted interest rates could drop into the high 5% range by 2025-2026. However, after the election, he revised his forecast, suggesting a slight increase.

    Both Yun and Levine predict moderate home sales price growth and a 10-11% increase in sales activity during 2025. Locally, the Bay Area real estate market has been gaining momentum with more homes listed for sale compared to last year's late summer and early fall. Barbara Clemons, president of the Bay East Association of Realtors, believes people still want to buy homes and live in the Bay Area regardless of election results.

    Clemons notes that Bay Area residents are aware of the area's desirability as a place to own a home, despite political awareness. She sees an uptick in the housing market during 2025, considering various factors influencing buying and selling decisions.