W
arren Buffett once warned that the best moments to buy are when the crowd is greedy, and the best moments to sell are when the crowd is fearful. The Rochester housing scene today illustrates that rule in full force.
Mortgage rates have slipped to 6.34 %—the lowest in more than a year, except for a brief dip in mid‑September. Buyers who have been waiting for both lower rates and a slowdown in bidding wars have finally found the conditions they need. National headlines about tariffs, economic swings and political turmoil have kept many potential buyers on the sidelines, turning a once frantic market into one where a handful of thoughtful offers replace the 12‑to‑14 bids that once pushed prices $85,000‑$125,000 above asking.
If you’re worried rates might drop further, remember that refinancing is always an option when they do. What you can’t do is go back in time to capture the rare moment when rates fall and competition eases together.
For sellers, the timing is equally compelling. Rochester’s home values have climbed more than 59 % over the past five years, and the market still moves fast enough to reward well‑priced, well‑presented properties. List now, and if the house sells before mid‑November, you lock in your gains. If it doesn’t, pull the listing as the holidays approach and relist in late January or early February, just as spring activity ramps up. Either way, you’ll be ahead of the inevitable spring surge.
The fundamentals remain solid. A persistent inventory shortage keeps price declines unlikely, while demand—though delayed by uncertainty—remains strong. When that delayed demand meets limited supply, the market always rebounds with force each spring.
History shows that the most successful investors didn’t wait for perfect clarity; they acted when the crowd hesitated. Joseph Kennedy, for example, sensed the frenzy before the 1929 crash and began selling. Legend has it he was prompted by a shoeshine boy’s stock tips, a sign that speculation had reached everyone. After the crash, while most stayed frozen in fear, Kennedy quietly redeployed his profits, buying when confidence was at its lowest. He embodied Buffett’s principle—greedy when others were fearful—long before Buffett articulated it.
Other titans—Buffett himself, Estée Lauder, Jeff Bezos—have all followed the same logic. The current Rochester market offers that same opportunity: lower rates, reduced competition, realistic pricing, and a supply gap that favors decisive action over hesitation.
Whether you’re a buyer looking for a good entry point or a seller ready to harvest years of appreciation, the question isn’t whether conditions will ever be perfect—it’s whether you’ll act while others stay on the sidelines.
—Warren Buffett
Mark Siwiec, Broker/Owner of Elysian Homes by Mark Siwiec and Associates, brings over 30 years of experience and more than $1 billion in sales. His monthly column delivers insights on national and local trends, helping clients navigate the ever‑changing real estate landscape. For more information, visit Elysian Homes or call 585‑330‑8750.
