I
'm sitting at a Parisian café, directly across from the Conciergerie, where Marie Antoinette spent her final days before execution. The French Revolution's legacy is still palpable in this city, and its echoes can be seen in the current real estate market in Rochester.

    The past year has seen a 30% increase in homes sold for over $1 million, making it a great time for luxury buyers and sellers. However, for first-time buyers, it's been a struggle. Inventory is scarce, mortgage rates are high, and affordability is at an all-time low. As a result, the average age of a first-time buyer has risen from 28 in 1991 to 38 today.

    The journalist Derek Thompson suggests that municipal building codes strengthened 50 years ago led to increased construction costs, which contributed to the current housing crisis. Similarly, in Monroe County, zoning changes and builder bankruptcies have constrained new home construction. The real estate app Reventure reports a staggering drop of 76% in single-family homes available for sale over the past five years.

    The national economy is thriving, but the housing market has suffered. It may take bad economic news to provide relief for the industry. Last week's jobs report showed only 73,000 new jobs created in July, and a downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June. Inflation is also rising, which could lead to further price increases.

    The Federal Reserve may be forced to choose between fighting inflation or supporting employment. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange predicts an 80% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed's next meeting, which would support employment and potentially benefit the housing industry. With mortgage rates already dropping to 6.63%, it's likely that they will fall further.

    While change is afoot, I don't believe this marks the beginning of a new era where the housing market thrives at the expense of the general economy. Perhaps this is the start of something long overdue – a modest realignment and shared prosperity.