N
ational Association of REALTORS® (NAR) has identified ten U.S. metro areas that are likely to see the strongest home‑sale activity in 2026, according to data released at its virtual “Real Estate Forecast Summit: The Year Ahead.” The forecast hinges on two key trends: mortgage rates are projected to fall to an average of 6% for 30‑year fixed loans—down from roughly 7% at the start of 2025—and home‑inventory levels are expected to rise. Together, these changes could open the market to an additional 5.5 million qualified buyers nationwide, including 1.6 million renter households.

    “The top 10 markets combine strong demand potential, improved affordability, and a housing supply that matches buyers’ budgets,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. Senior economist Nadia Evangelou added that while a handful of cities will lead the rebound, the same affordability gains should benefit many other regions. “Home buying thrives when affordability aligns with attainability—meaning inventory that fits buyers’ incomes,” she noted.

    To determine the leaders, NAR examined metros with populations over 250,000, weighing factors such as job growth, migration, income trends, new construction, and the impact of lower rates on buyer eligibility. The analysis revealed that the markets most likely to experience a surge in sales are:

    1. Charleston, S.C.

    2. Charlotte, N.C.–S.C.

    3. Columbus, Ohio

    4. Indianapolis, Ind.

    5. Jacksonville, Fla.

    6. Minneapolis–St. Paul, Minn.–Wis.

    7. Raleigh, N.C.

    8. Richmond, Va.

    9. Salt Lake City, Utah

    10. Spokane, Wash.

    These cities are not necessarily the most talked about, but they represent areas where inventory growth and income expansion create a balanced market that should attract more buyers and stimulate seller activity in 2026.