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recent study published in the Journal of Real Estate Research suggests that counties that flipped from voting for one presidential candidate in 2020 to another in 2024 may see higher average growth in home prices during the winning party's second term. The analysis, which examined election data and home prices at the county level from 2000 to 2020, found that counties that switched their votes to support a new president saw superior home price performance over the next four years.

    According to the study, at least 84 counties across the US flipped from voting for Joe Biden in 2020 to Donald Trump in 2024. These counties may now experience higher average growth in home prices compared to those that remained loyal to the Democratic Party. The study's lead author, Eren Cifci, notes that while the findings are suggestive rather than definitive, they could indicate a causal relationship between election outcomes and home prices.

    Cifci suggests two possible explanations for this trend: the winning party may invest in these areas to maintain voter support, or residents of flip counties may feel encouraged to get involved with local government and volunteer work, leading to positive changes that raise home values. The study did not find a statistically significant impact on home prices in counties that flipped their vote to an incumbent party candidate who then won the election.

    Interestingly, the study found that voters tend to reward the incumbent party for quickly rising home prices, which boost equity for homeowners and make them more likely to support the incumbent president's party. Conversely, counties with inferior home price performance leading up to an election are more likely to flip their vote to support the challenger. This suggests that home prices can influence election results as much as election outcomes affect home prices.

    While the study should not be taken as a guarantee of future trends, it provides insights into the complex relationship between elections and housing markets. Homebuyers considering a purchase in one of the recently flipped counties may want to take note of these findings and consider the potential impact on their investment.