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edfin’s latest data shows September 2025 was the slowest month for sellers in six years. Only 25.3 % of homes sold above their final list price—down from 28.5 % a year earlier and the lowest September share since 2019. The average sale‑to‑list ratio slipped to 98.6 % from 99.1 %, meaning most homes closed 1.4 % below asking. Just 32.8 % of contracts were signed within two weeks of listing, the lowest in six years, and the average property stayed on the market 50 days, the slowest pace since 2016.
Affordability is tightening. Mortgage rates, insurance, and taxes remain well above pandemic lows, while inventory has risen enough that buyers can afford to wait. Redfin notes a 36.7 % surplus of sellers over buyers, giving buyers more room to negotiate. “Homebuyers still expect the same price they could afford a year ago,” says Houston agent Roze Swartz, adding that sellers who don’t list at the lowest price are often ignored.
Despite softer competition, prices edged up. The median U.S. sale price rose 1.7 % year‑over‑year to $435,545, the largest gain in six months and the highest September on record. Active listings fell 0.6 % from August to 1.96 million (seasonally adjusted) but were still 8 % higher than a year ago. Some sellers are choosing to rent rather than cut prices.
Existing‑home sales climbed 0.4 % month‑over‑month and 4.5 % year‑over‑year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.25 million, the highest since January. Total sales rose 0.7 % month‑over‑month and 3.4 % year‑over‑year, the strongest showing since October 2022. The modest uptick is linked to mortgage rates averaging 6.35 % in September—the lowest in a year. Yet pending sales fell 1 % from August and 2.4 % from a year earlier, the steepest annual drop since February, indicating buyers are still waiting for further rate declines.
Regional trends vary. The Midwest saw the strongest price growth: Milwaukee +9.1 %, Detroit +7.9 %, Cleveland +7.4 %. Texas metros fell: Dallas –2.7 %, Austin –2.3 %, Houston –1.5 %. Pending sales rose most in San Francisco (17.1 %), Riverside (11.6 %), and West Palm Beach (11 %), while Houston (-11.7 %), Denver (-8.4 %), and San Antonio (-6.3 %) saw the biggest drops. San Francisco homes sold for 4.2 % above list, the highest premium nationwide, whereas Florida markets offered deep discounts: West Palm 94.8 %, Miami 95.2 %, Fort Lauderdale 95.4 %. Fort Lauderdale’s median days on market hit 97 days, 26 days longer than a year ago; only Kansas City, San Francisco, and Chicago saw shorter windows.
The market is in transition: prices are holding after months of softness, but sales momentum is still hampered by affordability and confidence issues. If mortgage rates keep easing, the balance could shift again in 2026, but for now buyers hold the advantage.
