Based on the preliminary and as yet unaudited financial metrics for the first nine months as well as forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026, the management board of Vonovia has adjusted the targets for the current financial year. Organic rental growth for the full year 2026 is now expected to reach around 3.8 per cent, compared with an earlier assumption of approximately 4.0 per cent. For Operating Free Cash Flow before changes in net working capital, the housing group expects a result moderately below the 2025 level. Stagnation at the prior-year level had previously been forecast.
In addition, management clarified the remaining earnings indicators for the 2026 annual guidance. Adjusted EBITDA Total is now expected in the lower half of the originally communicated range, while Adjusted EBT is likely to be around the lower end of the forecast corridor. By contrast, rental income in the Rental segment and Adjusted Shareholder Earnings have proved more resilient, with the management board anticipating results in the upper half of the range for both figures.
Pressures in the transaction and development segments
The main factors behind the somewhat weaker rental growth in the 2026 financial year are reduced investment volumes, particularly in the development-to-hold business, and less dynamic growth in relevant rent indices. The sales-related segments Recurring Sales and Development are falling substantially further short of initial expectations. This is due to continually rising financing costs for prospective buyers, which are noticeably dampening the transaction environment.
In the core operating business, the Rental and Value-add segments nevertheless continue to see positive performance. The management board expects this trend to continue in the 2027 financial year. Even so, the Development division in particular and, to a lesser extent, Recurring Sales are likely to remain weighed down in future by substantially higher interest rates and ongoing reluctance to transact. The altered interest rate environment is also having a negative impact on the company's financial result.
Impact on new-build volume and target corridors through to 2028
Over the medium term, higher capital costs are having an impact on new construction: in the Development segment, the creation of cost-effective housing for the company's own portfolio is being delayed. While the company expects an acceleration in organic rental growth in the 2028 financial year compared with 2026 and 2027, the management board currently believes that the original growth target of around 5 per cent is unlikely to be reached.
