Deutsche Apotheker- und Ärztebank eG (apoBank), through its Senior Specialist Economics, Stefan Schüder, CFA, has presented an analysis of the key factors for future developments in international equity markets. This assessment is also important for the real estate market, as capital market events have direct and indirect effects on financing conditions and investment willingness.
According to Schüder, equity markets are currently supported by robust earnings growth, a positive reporting season, and the ongoing investment cycle in Artificial Intelligence (AI). This creates a fundamentally constructive environment for risk assets. At the same time, he also identified factors that create headwinds: higher bond yields, geopolitical risks, and potential trade conflicts.
ApoBank emphasises that positive fundamental factors currently outweigh others. Particularly relevant here is the finding that market leadership is expanding to a broader corporate base. This indicates a reduction in the concentration of value creation among a few players, which can contribute to more stable market development.
The economic outlook is considered robust globally. Despite increased energy prices, no wage-price spiral is expected that would justify an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. However, rising bond yields remain a risk factor, as they can increase financing costs and strain credit markets. The technology sector continues to be named as the primary driver of global equity market development.
Despite the predominantly positive assessment by apoBank's Senior Specialist Economics, clear risk factors are identified that require precise monitoring. These could influence the overall economic climate and, indirectly, the real estate market.
- —An escalation of the Middle East conflict.
- —Further rising energy prices.
- —A revival of trade conflicts.
In summary, according to apoBank, the positive earnings and economic outlook currently outweigh the burdens arising from higher oil and energy prices. The expansion of the stock market rally to companies beyond the large technology groups through the adoption of AI is seen as a stabilising factor.
