The results of the RICS Global Commercial Property Monitor (GCPM) for the second quarter of 2026 paint an aggregated picture of stability and slight improvement for the global commercial property market. The Commercial Property Sentiment Index (CPSI) rose from -3 in the first quarter to -1, indicating a move towards the neutral zone. This development continues the upward trend observed since the second half of 2024, even though the escalation of tensions in the Middle East at the beginning of the year had caused a setback. At a country level, however, significant shifts are apparent, with a weakening of previously strong markets and improvements in formerly challenging segments.
Lending conditions continue to be heterogeneous. In some markets, a partial reversal of the tightening observed in the first quarter was registered. Nevertheless, the global environment remains characterised by uncertainties, particularly due to recent energy price increases and ongoing geopolitical tensions. These factors have heightened concerns regarding inflation, interest rate expectations, and bond market volatility. Despite this, occupier markets showed continued resilience, with the global Occupier Sentiment Index (OSI) rising to zero, up from -2 in the previous quarter.
The Americas region continued to hold a leading position with a CPSI of +12, following +10 in the first quarter. This positive momentum is largely influenced by the United States, where the CPSI rose to +13. Canada moved into positive territory with +3. In the US, the strength of the industrial segment and an improvement in the office sector are particularly highlighted, supported by a recovery in lending and available liquidity. Europe also showed a slightly more favourable result; the CPSI moved towards zero at -6. France and Italy, which previously showed weak values, improved, with Italy returning to positive territory at +4.
Ireland improved to +14 and the United Kingdom to -8. Germany saw a slight decline to -23, reflecting continued restraint in the country's metropolitan areas. Poland and Spain remain the strongest European markets with +27 and +26 respectively. In contrast, the Middle East Africa (MEA) region experienced the sharpest decline, influenced by ongoing conflicts. The United Arab Emirates recorded a significant drop to -32. Saudi Arabia's CPSI, at +15, is below previous highs but continues to show solid fundamentals. Sentiment in South Africa remained positive at +13. The APAC region remained largely unchanged with a CPSI of -12, with slight improvements in China and Hong Kong, but a decline in Japan to +27.
Global occupier demand across all property segments held up well, with a net balance of +10%, signalling positive dynamics in leasing activity. The Americas continued to exhibit the strongest fundamentals in occupier markets; the OSI rose to +15, and occupier demand increased to +36%. This corresponds with the observation of a stronger office presence and sustained momentum in the leasing of industrial and logistics space. Occupier demand in MEA remained distinctly positive at +11%, although a weakening compared to the previous quarter was observed. In Europe, the net balance of occupier demand improved slightly to -2%.
- —Hungary: Lending conditions net balance rises to +72% (from +11%)
- —Singapore: Lending conditions net balance rises to +33% (from -14%)
- —Poland: Lending conditions net balance rises to +50% (from +15%)
- —China: Lending conditions net balance rises to +37% (from +7%)
In the United Kingdom, lending conditions were also perceived as less restrictive, with the net balance improving to -23%. However, financing conditions continued to present a significant headwind in other markets. The divergence of developments underlines the need for a nuanced view of the global commercial property market.
