The first joint analysis of the German commercial real estate market by bulwiengesa and ImmoScout24, published in the GewerbeBarometer, combines continuous market and transaction data with supply and demand data. The resulting assessment of the logistics market does not show homogeneous development; instead, it reveals increasing differentiation according to primary quality criteria and intended use. These structural changes noticeably influence market mechanisms and require a more precise consideration of strategic decisions.
Logistics and industrial properties remain a stable asset class, although the dynamism of past boom years has diminished. New construction volume in 2025 was approximately 4.3 million square metres and is slightly declining, though a well-filled project pipeline exists for the coming years. Parallel to the decelerating momentum, a significant change in market structure is observable. While top logistics regions continue to demonstrate their stability, an increase in vacancies is noted in secondary locations.
Prime rents in established regions are continuously rising, but lose momentum outside top locations. A weighted average for A-city logistics regions currently stands at just under 10 Euro per square metre. Munich confirms its leading position with 10.90 Euro per square metre. ImmoScout24's data underscore this development by showing an approximately 80 percent increase in supply since 2022. Kristian Kehlert, Lead Data Analyst at ImmoScout24, explains that a clear easing on the supply side is visible. He points out that space availability has increased, while demand is simultaneously becoming more differentiated, especially regarding smaller units and well-connected locations.
The logistics market is increasingly shaped by new structural demand drivers that extend beyond classic influencing factors such as e-commerce. Geopolitical developments are currently gaining increased focus. The growing importance of defence-related companies as well as public and security-relevant actors generates additional space requirements, for example, for production, storage, and the safeguarding of upstream supply chains. These aspects contribute to a new complexity in site selection.
At the same time, the market is registering increased interest from international investors and users, particularly from Asia. These players, mainly logistics service providers and manufacturing companies, are specifically seeking stable logistics locations in Europe, thereby reinforcing demand in established regions. The combination of these developments leads to a noticeable change in market mechanics. There is increasing demand for specialised, infrastructure-wise well-connected spaces in strategic locations. Conversely, standardised properties in less established regions are losing attractiveness, which further accentuates the existing differentiation in the logistics market.
